08.08.16 – UK ENTITLEMENTS 2017 UPDATE

As every year, we are now receiving many calls from those involved in tenancy negotiations this autumn asking what effect Brexit will have on Entitlement values. To date, no trading has taken place in the open market, and therefore we can only look to last year and what has happened since with Brexit. Our UK Entitlement Trading Market Report for 2016 sets out our trading record and reports which shows that the average price for English Non-SDA Entitlements for 2016 was £192 per ha. The market started off at £190-200 and effectively ended up on average at the same sort of levels during the final weeks of trading. The 2016 market had already discounted for the chance of Brexit. This discount will increase due to the “real” uncertainty now created. However we are now also experiencing the “real” effects of the devalued pound, and at the time of writing it is 13% lower against the Euro than it was in September 2015 when the exchange rate for the 2015 Basic Payment was set in Sterling. Whilst it doesn’t yet directly affect 2017 trading, there could be this type of bonus for the 2016 payment if the pound stays at this level until the end of September. It is of course some time until the 2017 BPS will be set in sterling (September 2017), but the market has had a tendency to work a year behind on payment values when the trades actually take place. Subsequently our prediction is that the trade for 2017 Entitlements should start between £190-200 per ha for English Non-SDA. The good news cancels out the bad news and last year therefore remains the best indication we have for this year. We now know it is reasonable to assume there will be at least two more payments (2017 & 2018) from any purchase of Entitlements made now. Subsequently if you have the money and the land at your disposal it continues to be a “no brainer”, as there is probably nothing else you could invest in which will double your money in two years. If DEFRA come out with a strong policy and commitment to providing UK subsidies after Brexit, we could however be looking at a much stronger market than last year.